Why the best leaders work with uncertainty, and don’t try to eliminate it
As a leader, you already know that change and uncertainty aren’t going anywhere.
Right now you’re navigating shifting markets, tariffs, unpredictable global events and the pace of AI, all while your team looks to you for reassurance and answers to some genuinely big questions.
The instinct is to try and remove that uncertainty – to have the answer, every time. But that isn’t what leadership requires, and chasing it will wear you out. The real skill isn’t eliminating uncertainty for your team. It’s becoming comfortable holding it yourself, so you can help your team do the same.
You can’t lead people to a place you haven’t been yourself. If you’re visibly uncomfortable with not knowing, your team will feel that, no matter what you say out loud. Get comfortable with uncertainty first, and everything else – the trust, the psychological safety, the adaptability – becomes possible. That’s the order it happens in.
Do that well, and you’ll build trust, adaptability, responsiveness and confidence across your team. You’ll also get to put down the superhero cape.
Why it feels harder than it should
Most people’s default response to change is negative, which is exactly why it feels harder than it should. David Rock’s SCARF model explains why: when people feel threatened or unsure, their sense of Status, Certainty, Autonomy, Relatedness and Fairness all come under pressure. They start questioning how valued they are, whether the future is predictable, how much control they have, who they can rely on, and whether decisions are fair. Addressing each of these and noticing how they’re actually showing up in your team, is critical to leading well through change.
The good news: this is rarely a commitment or effort problem for leaders. It’s a mindset one. Rather than seeing your role as having all the answers, you’ll serve your team best by treating uncertainty as inevitable — and as an opportunity for everyone to grow.
Having all the answers isn’t possible… or even good
You’ll be managing your own uncertainty as well as your team’s. That’s a responsibility good leaders embrace. Many have, with good intentions, spent years forecasting and mitigating the ‘risk’ that comes with change. It’s a natural instinct to want to control, fix and solve, but it’s exactly how you end up becoming the source everyone waits on for answers.
Today, more than ever, you’re guiding teams through situations with incomplete, fast-changing information. The best leaders recognise there’s plenty outside their control, and that honesty lets them stay flexible and responsive. Take AI as an example: what new tools are you using today, just months after investing time (and possibly money) into different ones? Things change, and you need to adapt, quickly.
With the landscape shifting this fast, no one is expecting you to have the whole map. That expectation is one you’re placing on yourself, not one your team is placing on you. What they need instead is trust — in you, in the process, and in each other. The rest of this piece is about building that trust.
Build trust with transparency
When there’s uncertainty, safety comes from transparency.
Leaders who over-promise, or pretend to have all the answers, don’t build trust. A leader who says, “I don’t know yet, but here’s what we’re exploring,” creates more confidence than one who offers false certainty.
Think about those two leaders:
- The first projects absolute conviction in the face of uncertainty.
- The second transparently and confidently shares how parts of the plan are still developing as information emerges.
Both will need to change direction from their starting point at some stage — some of it significantly. Which approach do you think builds more trust, respect and understanding when that change comes?
This is exactly what Thrive’s HAPPINESS ingredients are about. The sense of Safety and Structure is tangible, and it shows up as motivation and Energy to embrace uncertainty, rather than fear it. On top of that, the understanding you’ve created gives your team room to speak up, challenge assumptions and adapt – which is where Autonomy comes in.
All those answers you couldn’t possibly be expected to have on your own?
They start getting answered by the brilliant brains across your team.
The goal: become more comfortable holding uncertainty
Leaders who accept uncertainty as a permanent part of the job learn to stay calmer, make thoughtful decisions through change, take action, and adapt as new information comes in.
That’s different from trying to remove uncertainty through false confidence — and it avoids another trap: leaders who burn energy delaying decisions while waiting for perfect information.
It’s a real shift for most people. But like any skill, you can build it.
How the best leaders approach uncertainty
In our work, we see the same behaviours again and again in leaders who handle uncertainty well. They stay calm and communicate openly, so people aren’t left guessing. They stay curious, asking questions rather than jumping to conclusions, and they adapt quickly as new information appears rather than clinging to the original plan. Most importantly, they create stability by setting clear priorities, which helps people make sense of what’s happening — securing Structure, Safety and Autonomy in the process.
So, in the spirit of avoiding absolutes: there’s no single prescribed process here. But there are habits and principles worth building if you want to lead consistently when the destination isn’t fully visible yet.
Six principles for leading well when the future is unclear
- Resist rushing to certainty — slowing down the instinct to jump to conclusions and fix creates space for curiosity and exploration.
- Experiment rather than predict — small, low-risk tests help teams learn quickly instead of waiting for perfect information.
- Model comfort with uncertainty — saying, “I don’t know yet, but here’s how we’ll find out,” builds trust and shows uncertainty is something to work with, not hide.
- Reflect and learn — after key decisions, asking what surprised the team, what they learned and what they’ll do differently strengthens adaptability.
- Build psychological safety — when people feel safe to ask questions, challenge ideas and admit mistakes, they’re far more able to navigate ambiguity.
- Celebrate adaptability — recognising people who adjust their approach and respond to new evidence reinforces the behaviours that help teams move forward.
One thing you can start doing today
Imagine, for a moment, you’ve managed to put down the pressure of needing all the answers. That’s no small thing in itself.
Now replace it with a new habit: asking better questions. Start with, “What do you think?” or “How do you see this playing out?”
Small as it sounds, this immediately helps your team start speaking up—and starts building the culture of communication you’ll need through change and uncertainty.
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How Thrive helps you build this
Coaching is one of the fastest ways to build these habits, because it works on how you think when the future’s unclear — not just what you do. Grounded in the real challenges you’re facing, it helps you practise curiosity, reflection, experimentation and learning: exactly the muscles this piece has been about.
At Thrive, this is where our HAPPINESS model comes in. We’ve built these ingredients into our workshops, one-to-one coaching and leadership team development, to help you and your team build the confidence to navigate uncertainty, together.
If you’d like to explore this further, get in touch or sign up to our newsletter for regular insights straight to your inbox.